First Alert Forecast

Wednesday and Thursday are now 48 First Alert Weather Days. Clouds will increase overnight tonight and so will the humidity. The air will warm into the middle to upper 70s again tomorrow and the atmosphere will become more unstable. Most of the afternoon the air above us will be too warm to support storms but by 7pm we think there will be a four hour window for severe storms to develop along and north of the Tennessee River. If these storms do form we expect to the possibility of damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes with them as they track northeast. After Midnight we expect to see a shift with the storms. A line of storms will begin tracking from west to east ahead of a cold front at that time. We expect widespread storms with gusty winds and heavy rain to develop into the overnight. These storms will pose more of a damaging wind and heavy rain threat. Overnight into Thursday morning locally heavy rain will become the primary threat with flash flooding possible through the Thursday morning commute. Thursday afternoon should be fairly quiet with only a few isolated showers or storms. If we have widespread rain Thursday morning the air would be rain cooled and this could limit any threat of severe storms early in the day and the main threat for severe weather Thursday would most likely develop after 9pm. A fast moving squall line is forecast to race to the east overnight into the early morning hours on Friday. Damaging straight line winds and heavy rain will be the primary threat but we could also see some spin-up tornadoes given the high shear within this line. Flash flooding could be an issue again for the Friday morning commute. The storms will pass during the middle of the morning and the wind will pick up from the northwest at 20-35 mph. A cool but dry afternoon is forecast for Friday at this time. The weekend looks seasonal and dry for right now. Keep checking back for the latest information regarding the development of our active weather that begins Wednesday afternoon.
Severe Outlook
Severe Outlook(none)
Published: Feb. 28, 2023 at 4:00 PM CST
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