Trump leads Democratic contenders in Alabama poll

Trump leads Democratic contenders in Alabama poll
President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a campaign rally in, Lexington, Ky., Monday, Nov. 4, 2019. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh) (Source: Susan Walsh)

By TODD STACY, Alabama Daily News

MONTGOMERY, Ala. (Alabama Daily News) - President Donald Trump holds significant leads over each major Democratic candidate for president in Alabama, a new Alabama Daily News-WBRC-WAFF poll shows. Though that result is unsurprising in the reliably red state, Trump’s support varied went tested head-to-head against the different candidates.

Trump fared the best against Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. If the election were held today, 62% of Alabama voters would choose Trump versus 35% for Warren, a 27 point differential.

Meanwhile, Trump fared the worst against former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has visited Alabama multiple times and has been advertising heavily in the state. Trump wins 54% to Bloomberg’s 40%, according to the survey.

The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy on behalf of Alabama Daily News and its news partners. It surveyed 625 registered voters in Alabama with a margin of error of +/-4%.

Against former Vice President Joe Biden, Trump is the choice of 58% to Biden’s 38%. Between Trump and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Trump wins 60% to Sanders’ 37%. And when tested against former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Trump wins 58% to Buttigieg’s 37%.

Bloomberg’s biggest edge is his popularity with African Americans, a key voting continent for Alabama Democrats. Pitted against Trump, 95% of black voters chose Bloomberg to Trump’s 3%. Compare that to Warren, who earns 85% of black voters to Trump’s 11%.

Trump vs. Warren

Trump vs. Warren
Trump vs. Warren (Source: Alabama Daily News)
Gender Trump Warren Undecided
Men 69% 30% 1%
Women 55% 40% 5%
Race Trump Warren Undecided
White 84% 13% 3%
Black 11% 85% 4%
Party ID Trump Warren Undecided
Democrat 13% 83% 4%
Republican 99% -- 1%
Independent 61% 32% 7%

Trump vs. Bloomberg

Trump vs. Bloomberg
Trump vs. Bloomberg (Source: Alabama Daily News)
Gender Trump Bloomberg Undecided
Men 58% 37% 5%
Women 51% 43% 6%
Race Trump Bloomberg Undecided
White 76% 16% 8%
Black 3% 95% 2%
Party ID Trump Bloomberg Undecided
Democrat 7% 91% 2%
Republican 91% 5% 4%
Independent 53% 32% 15%

Trump vs. Buttigieg

Trump vs. Buttigieg
Trump vs. Buttigieg (Source: Alabama Daily News)
Gender Trump Buttigieg Undecided
Men 63% 33% 4%
Women 54% 40% 6%
Race Trump Buttigieg Undecided
White 77% 13% 9%
Black 13% 82% 5%
Party ID Trump Buttigieg Undecided
Democrat 9% 87% 4%
Republican 97% 1% 2%
Independent 59% 30% 11%

Trump vs. Biden

Trump vs. Biden
Trump vs. Biden (Source: Alabama Daily News)
Gender Trump Biden Undecided
Men 65% 32% 3%
Women 52% 43% 5%
Race Trump Biden Undecided
White 81% 14% 5%
Black 14% 93% 2%
Party ID Trump Biden Undecided
Democrat 7% 90% 3%
Republican 98% 1% 1%
Independent 58% 33% 9%

Trump vs. Sanders

Trump vs. Sanders
Trump vs. Sanders (Source: Alabama Daily News)
Gender Trump Sanders Undecided
Men 66% 32% 2%
Women 55% 41% 4%
Race Trump Sanders Undecided
White 83% 14% 3%
Black 7% 91% 2%
Party ID Trump Sanders Undecided
Democrat 6% 91% 3%
Republican 99% -- 1%
Independent 64% 28% 8%

Methodology

A total of 625 registered Alabama voters were interviewed live by telephone statewide. Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Alabama voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter registration by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than +/- 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95% probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.

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